It’s been very difficult to write the Q1 2025 update, when the world changed so dramatically just after the quarter closed on “Liberation Day”. Everyone knows what happened on 2nd April 2025, with investors still wondering what it means for the overall metals & mining investment environment. This will become clearer as the tariff negotiations continue, along with evolving impacts and observable changes in the underlying trade and physical market data. This greater clarity remains forward-looking, for now.
To effectively write this update, it required putting the blinders on and just looking at Q1 2025 developments in isolation from more recent developments, starting with prices.
Change in Metals & Mining Prices (Q1 2025 only)
Source: Argus, Bloomberg, FastMarkets and S&P Global data, RCF Analysis, as of 1 Apr 2025
The graph above shows that metals & mining markets remain very healthy, with 10% (or greater) quarterly price gains across many important markets. Prices across precious, base, lithium, rare earths and ex-China steel ended the quarter at the top (or near the top) of their 90-day trading ranges. Gold continues to lead, with price recoveries in other markets providing further sector encouragement, particularly in many future-facing commodities such as copper, tin, and rare earths.
In the middle of the quarter, the RCF investment committees came together at the semi-annual Portfolio, Commodity and Investment Strategy meeting and confirmed our medium & long-term outlooks for the market. The conclusions and insights from this meeting were shared with the RCF LP community on March 19, 2025, accessible here.
The overall outlook remains very positive for private investors in the metals & mining space. Global investment interest continues to grow, as the world seeks refuge in real assets to protect against inflation and to participate in the addition plus relocation of manufacturing activity to new markets. In many cases, these additions and relocations are directed at markets that have been neglected by globalisation for decades.
Therefore, when you hear Secretary Bessent say “….now it’s Main Street’s turn” or wonder how Asia and/or Europe might respond, it is not hard to conclude that the metals & mining industry is a natural beneficiary, arguably the sweet spot, of what is likely to unfold over the next decade.
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