Q2 2025 opened with the “Liberation Day” tariff announcement in the USA, which was dynamically priced by global markets over the following 2-3 weeks. The eventual impact on metals & mining markets remains unclear, given the frontrunning and physical market data which continues to come into focus. Suffice to say, it was a good quarter from a market and price performance standpoint, once the market recovered from the tariff announcement.
Considering the accelerating uncertainty and volatility in the markets, everyone needs a strong anchor point. For RCF, it is found in both the long-term trends, as well as the renewed recognition of just how metal-intensive future Energy, Security, and Technology growth will become.
Firstly, here’s the historical record from an underlying index standpoint, back to the start of RCF in 1998.
Commodity Prices vs Equities in Metals & Mining
Simplifying the story, metal prices have risen 6x, while mining companies have grown 3x. In many commodities (but certainly not all), current margins are strong and multiples are down. The consistent commodity price rise since Jan 2016, shown by Bloomberg All Metals TR – BCOMAMT Index (grey line) above, has ‘loaded the spring’; whereby the companies that produce future metal must reconnect with the value of their primary product.
Turning to specific commodity strategy work in the quarter, RCF was active in the detailed analysis of gold, copper, lithium, rare earth, and uranium. This work supports both existing and future investment strategies. In short, our analysis turned up a ‘no surprises, stay the course’ message internally, and particularly with respect to uranium, considering RCF has been vocally negative with a ‘not yet’ call. The market fundamentals suggest this remains the case.
Importantly, the metals & mining sector remained front and center for both investors and world leaders throughout 2Q 2025. Notably, as the quarter ended, the US announced a 50% tariff on imported copper into the USA from 1 August; and, MP Materials entered a transformational public-private partnership agreement with the US Government in the critical minerals space.
RCF will have more to say about these two developments (and more) at our upcoming AGM in September.
Important Information
This material is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as research. The information presented is not a complete analysis of the commodities landscape.
Forward-looking statements are presented for illustrative purposes only and are not guarantees of future performance. Actual performance will vary due to a variety of factors, including general economic conditions. Neither RCF nor any independent third party has independently audited or verified this information.
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